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Climate Articles by Ken Gregory
The Water Vapour Feedback from Two Reanalysis Datasets August 14, 2023We use temperature, pressure and relative humidity data of 12 atmospheric layers obtained from two state-of-the-art global reanalysis datasets and results from a line-by-line radiative code to calculate the water vapour feedback. The results suggest that the water vapour feedback is about 66% of the IPCC’s assessed value; 67% using the ERA5 dataset and 65% using the NECP2 dataset. A change of water vapour mass in the 100-150 mbar pressure atmospheric layer causes a change in radiative forcing that is 284 times greater than in the 1000-1013 mbar near-surface layer. The relative humidity values in the Polar Regions are much different between the two datasets. ERA5 gives the relative humidity at the 250 mbar pressure level at the South Pole at 2.5% while NECP2 says it is 64%. Large humidity discrepancies between the datasets and water vapour feedback estimates show that climate science is far from settled.
Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks July 17, 2023A recent paper provided estimates of carbon sinks in North America. Carbon sinks refers to the net absorption by the land of carbon dioxide (CO2). In North America, vegetation absorbed 57% of the CO2 causing a greening of the continent and 30% was absorbed by the soil and 13% by litter. In Canada, the carbon sink increased from 550 MtCO2/yr during 2000-2009 to 730 MtCO2/yr during 2010-2019. During the same period, Canada’s average annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) were 724 MtCO2eq and 716 MtCO2eq. The calculations show that Canada’s emissions have been declining despite our rapidly increasing population while the absorption of CO2 into land sinks have increase by 33% between the two decades. Canada’s boreal and temperate forests account for 88% of its land sinks. Canada is benefiting from a strong CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis. Canada has likely already surpassed net zero GHG emissions.
The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A August 23, 2022This study provides new capital cost estimates for the U.S.A. to meet net zero emissions using wind and solar power with battery storage using hourly electricity generation data. The total capital cost of electrification is estimated at US$290 trillion, or 13.5 times the U.S.A. 2019 gross domestic product. Overbuilding the solar plus wind capacity by 18% reduces overall costs by 17% by reducing battery storage costs. Allowing fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage to provide 60% of the demand of fossil fuels, solar and wind powered electricity dramatically reduces the total costs to US$20.5 trillion, which is a reduction of 92.9%.
Climate Sensitivity by Energy Balance with Urban and Natural Warming July 12, 2022The paper LC2018 presents estimates of climate sensitivity parameters ECS and TCR with uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, the analysis was deficient in that the natural climate change from the base to final periods were not considered and no correction was applied to remove the urban heat island effect (UHIE) from the temperature record. This study presents corrected estimates of ECS and TCR with uncertainty estimates by including the UHIE and natural warming. The median (best estimate) of ECS and TCR are estimated at 1.19 °C and 0.95 °C, respectively. Global average temperatures are forecast to increase by 0.87 °C from 2020 to 2100, assuming the GHG concentrations in the atmosphere increase exponentially and no natural climate change. The FUND economic model, using updated energy impacts and CO2 fertilization effects calculates that a 2 °C GMST rise from 2020 would increase global wealth by 9.8% of 2020 world income by 2146, equivalent to 2020US$8.8 trillion.
Social Cost (Benefit) of Carbon Dioxide from FUND with Corrections July 10, 2022The FUND integrated assessment model was modified to replacing its faulty climate component with a 2-box ocean climate component, replacing the space heating and cooling component with components that match expenditure data, and adjusting the CO2 fertilization impacts due to recent studies of the effect. The model was run to determine the social cost (benefit) of carbon dioxide weighted by an equilibrium climate sensitivity probability distribution calculated by the energy balance method accounting for urban and natural warming. The global social net benefit of CO2 is estimated at US$11.2 and US$5.9 per tonne CO2, and Can$ 14.0 and Can$7.4 per tonne CO2 at discount rates of 3% and 5%, respectively for emissions in 2020. The positive net benefits of CO2 emissions means that CO2 emissions should be subsidized, not taxed
Submission to the Net Zero Advisory Body; Ken Gregory December 22, 2021Ken Gregory's submission to Canada's Net Zero Advisory Body shows that there is no justification for making any greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. The NZAB likely believes that GHG emissions are harmful because of the unscientific rhetoric from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is a disgraced, political organization, not a scientific one. This report shows that there is no consensus among scientists on either the warming effects of emission nor the social costs and benefits of emissions. The majority of scientists agree that there is no climate emergency. The Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) of the IPCC sixth report contains numerous misrepresentation. In general, GHG emissions are not making extreme weather events worse. Detailed evaluation of climate sensitivity and climate economics shows that the positive agriculture impacts of GHG emissions are 95 times the sum of the storms and sea level rise negative impacts. Increasing CO2 is causing a greening of the Earth and dramatically increasing crop yields.
Satellite Sea Level Acceleration is Artifact of Bad Calibration at Overlap Periods March 1, 2021University of Colorado sea level data gives a bogus acceleration of 0.097 mm/yr2 due to the failure to match the satellite trend data over the overlap periods of the four satellites. The trends of the data during the overlap periods should be the same if the data were calibrated, The first three satellites have long overlap periods but the trends were increased by 1.81 mm/yr. The acceleration of tide gauge data is 13% of satellite data.
Test of FUND's Temperature Response to CO2 December 4, 2020FUND is a widely cited integrated assessment model used to study the impacts of climate change. The FUND's temperature response to increasing CO2 alone at various equilibrium climate sensitivity values is tested by setting the CO2 increasing at 1% per year to a doubling of CO2 then held constant. At ECS = 1.5 °C the TCR is equal to the ECS, also 1.5 °C! This implies that the oceans are instantaneously in temperature equilibrium with the atmosphere, with no delay. This is physically impossible. The temperature responses to greenhouse gas emissions in FUND with ECS at or below 1.7 °C are much too high. The calculated social and economic impacts are therefore too high.
The Global Economic Impact of Climate Change on Energy Expenditures May 30, 2020A paper, Lang and Gregory 2019, showed that a 3 °C increase in the global mean surface temperature would reduce USA energy expenditures and increase economic wealth by +0.07% of gross domestic product (GDP), whereas the FUND economic model projects an wealth impact of -0.80% of GDP. This article extends the analysis to global impact and finds a 3 °C increase would reduce global energy costs and increase wealth by +0.05% of gross world product (GWP) using empirical data, while FUND projects a wealth impact of -1.59% of GWP. The total economic impact of a 3 °C increase of global mean temperatures would increase wealth by +0.20% while FUND project -0.68% loss of wealth, assuming an climate sensitivity of 3.0 °C for double CO2. At a realistic ECS of 1.0 °C, the impact of a 2 °C temperature increase (in 2147) using empirical energy data would be +1.07% of GWP. This positive impact of global wealth increased to 1.45% of GWP when including an updated estimate of CO2 fertilization. This study shows that CO2 emissions have a large social benefit, so policies to restrict CO2 emissions are harmful and misguided.
Economic Impact of Energy Consumption Change Caused by Global Warming October 12, 2019This peer-reviewed paper by Peter Land and Ken Gregory tests the validity of the FUND model 's energy impact functions. Empirical data of energy expenditure and average temperatures of the US states and census divisions are compared with projections using the energy impact functions with non-temperature drivers held constant at their 2010 values. The empirical data indicates that energy expenditure decreases as temperatures increase, suggesting that global warming may reduce US energy expenditure and thereby have a positive impact on US economic growth. If FUND projections for the non-energy impact sectors are valid, 3 °C of global warming from 2000 would increase global economic growth.
Climate Science and Economics March 25, 2019Strong correlations between solar activity and climate indicate and the recent grand maximum of solar activity indicates that much of the warming of the 20th century was natural. Climate models do not include most natural climate change and they are now running much to hot. Bulk atmosphere temperature trends are 2.5 times the measurements. The CO2 induced warming from 2018 to 2100 may be only 0.6 °C. Some economic models of climate change fail to include benefits of warming and CO2 fertilization of plants. Cold kills 17 times as many as hot weather, so warming will reduce temperature related deaths. The Alberta climate plan will increase cumulative electricity costs to 2030 by $3.3 to $5.9 billion. Warming may benefit the world by US$ 3 trillion/yr by 2100.
Total Precipitable Water and the Greenhouse Effect June 22, 2019Total precipitable water is an important climate parameter as it is a measure of the total amount of water vapour which is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor increases with global warming and in the climate models it amplifies the direct small warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. It is often incorrectly assumed that an increase in total precipitable water corresponds to a positive water vapour feedback. The greenhouse effect is very sensitive to water vapour in the upper atmosphere. This article shows that based on humidity data from a major reanalysis dataset, declining humidity in the upper atmosphere offsets the greenhouse effect of increasing humidity in the lower atmosphere. The greenhouse effect of increasing water vapour in the atmosphere may not have caused a positive water vapor feedback, contrary to climate models. This may explain why the climate models have simulated a global surface warming from 1979 to 2019 of twice the satellite observed warming. Eliminating the water vapour feedbacks from climate models would reduce the mean climate sensitivity from 3.2 °C to 1.7 °C.
The Economics of the IPCC's Special Report on Limiting Temperatures to 1.5 °C October 30, 0218The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report (SR15) on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels on October 8, 2018. The report says the cost of mitigating CO2 emissions in 2030 to meet the 1.5 °C target is about 880 US$/tCO2. Using a climate sensitivity based on observations including effects of natural climate change, urban warming and the best available economic model, the mitigation proposal will prevent a benefit of 8 $/tCO2, for a total loss of 888 $/tCO2 mitigated.
Alberta's Climate Plan: A Burden with No Benefit November 10, 2017The Alberta Government imposed a carbon tax of C$20/tCO2 as of January 1, 2017, increasing C$30/tCO2 as of January 1, 2018. This action is not based on the most recent and best quality climate science and economic evaluations. The expected warming from 2016 to 2100 due to greenhouse gas emissions is only 0.6 °C using the best climate science. The net social benefit of emissions is about 5 US$/tCO2 . This value takes into account the natural recovery from the Little Ice Age and the effects of urban development. A carbon tax will harm all Albertans for no benefit. The climate plan is forecast to reduce global temperatures by 0.00007 °C by 2030.
The Economic Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions September 28, 2017Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) are used to determine the social costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emissions for making climate policies. The most important parameter in determining the economic impact of climate change is the sensitivity of the climate to greenhouse gas emissions. The transient climate response to CO2 emissions at the time of a doubling of CO2 using an empirical energy balance method was estimated at 0.85 °C, using the newest aerosol estimates, and accounting for urban warming contamination of the surface temperature record and the natural warming from the Little Ice Age. The equilibrium climate sensitivity was estimated at 1.02 °C. Using the FUND integrated assessment model results, the mean estimate of the social cost of carbon on a global basis is determined to be -5.2 US$/tonne of CO2, and is extremely likely to be less than -1.3 US$/tonne of CO2. The calculations assume emissions in 2020, a 3% discount rate and constant US$2016.
A Review of "Skeptical Science" Alleged Myths June 21, 2017The website "Skeptical Science.com" is popular among climate alarmists. The website alleges to refute claims by climate skeptics that global warming is not a crisis. The website features a list of 10 Most Used Climate Myths by climate skeptics at the top left part of the webpage. I review and rebut each rebuttal of the 10 alleged myths.
The Canadian Climate Model's Epic Failure November 15, 2016The Canadian climate model CanESM2 produces one of the most extreme warming projections of all the 30 models evaluated by the IPCC. The model badly fails to match the surface and atmosphere temperature observations, both globally, regionally.
A Skeptic's Submission to the Alberta Climate Change Advisory Panel September 19, 2015The climate has always changed and will continue to change regardless of any action taken by Albertans or the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Natural forces have caused dramatic climate change in the past. Climate model simulation of temperature do not match the observations indicating that the models are not suitable for making policy decisions. The climate is relatively insensitive to carbon dioxide emissions. Models used to calculate the social costs of carbon dioxide ignore many benefits, most notably, CO2 fertilization, and exaggerates the costs.
Rebuttal to Phil Elder's 'Primer on Global Warming' August 3, 2014This is the FoS rebuttal to Phil Elder's article published on TroyMedia July 28, 2014. Elder wrote many incorrect statements about climate, falsely concluding that human-caused CO2 emissions are dangerous. We rebut his assumptions using empirical evidence.
CERES Satellite and Climate Sensitivity February 23, 2014The Transient Climate Response due to double CO2 is calculated using the CERES satellite outgoing longwave radiation measurements and HadCRUT surface temperatures. This analysis by FoS Director Ken Gregory suggests that the temperature change from June 2013 to January 2100 due to increasing CO2 would be 0.20 C (from HadCRUT3) or 0.39 °C (from HadCRUT4), assuming the CO2 continues to increase along the recent linear trend. The transient climate response to doubled CO2 is 0.38 +/- 0.54 °C using hadCRUT3, and 0.74 +/- 0.54 °C using hadCRUT4 data at 95% confidence. These values are much less than the multi-model mean estimate of 1.8 °C for TCR given in the IPCC 5th assessment report. Revised Feb. 23, 2014.
Climate Alarmists are Rescued from Antarctic Summer Sea Ice January 3, 2014A group of climate alarmist tourists and scientists have been rescued from their boat, trapped by record high Antarctic summer sea ice. The climate scientists aboard the Russian research vessel, the Akademik Shokalskiy, expected to find evidence of melting sea ice, but instead encountered record high Antarctic sea ice. The Antarctic 2013 year-average sea ice area is the highest ever recorded during the satellite era which began in 1979 and the present sea ice area is near the record high. Global sea ice area at year-end 2013 is the highest ever recorded for the date and the global 2013 year-average sea ice area is the highest since 1996. Submissions to the UK Energy and Climate Change Committee December 25, 2013Friends of Science made two submissions to a UK House of Commons committee inquiry into the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). FoS Director Ken Gregory authored a submission on behalf of the society, and FoS Director Neil Hutton authored another submission.
Rebuttal to the Rotarian Comments on Climate Change October 3, 2013The Rotarian, a magazine of Rotary International, published an article September 2013 that falsely claimed that our use of fossil fuels has "massive environmental side effects, including climate change, loss of biodiversity, and acidification of the oceans." and claims it is "dangerous". Each of these claims is untrue and is contradicted by evidence. Here is our rebuttal.
Climate Models Fail to Match Recent Temperature History August 26, 2013A team of prominent climatologists finds that the continued global warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 to 2012, is no longer consistent with model projections at 98% certainty. Temperatures in the past have changed up to 24 times faster than the 20th century warming. The modeled warming trend since 1979 in the tropical mid-troposphere is four times greater than measurements.
Keystone XL Pipeline to Contribute 0.00002 °C Warming in 50 Years July 6, 2013U.S. President Obama is holding up approval of the Keystone XL pipeline project primarily due to his concern that the approval would contribute to global warming. We calculate that the approval of the Keystone project could contribute to 0.00002 °C warming in 50 years, based on incremental greenhouse gas emissions estimated by the U.S. State Department. The Keystone XL project is a proposed 36 inch oil pipeline that would carry product from Canada's oil sands to Gulf Coast refineries.
Al Gore's 'Climate Reality' and Unscientific Fear-mongering Tale March 22, 2013Two students of an Al Gore's Climate Reality training session gave a presentation to a Calgary, Canada audience in March, 2013. The presenters were unaware of evidence that the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGW) is incorrect. The PowerPoint presentation showed emotional images designed to scare the audience into thinking that fossil fuel use endangers the world. Ken Gregory rebuts the presentation and shows evidence that AGW is not a problem.
Snow Forecasts Were All Wrong March 22, 2013The Climate Research Unit declared 13 years ago that in a few years children won't know what snow is. But recent snowstorms have many climate alarmists declaring that global warming causes more snow, contrary to previous predictions and climate records.
Water Vapor Decline Cools the Earth: NASA Satellite Data March 3, 2013An analysis of NASA satellite data show that water vapor, the most important greenhouse gas, has declined in the upper atmosphere causing a cooling effect that is 16 times greater than the warming effect from man-made greenhouse gas emission during the period 1990 to 2001. Radiosonde data also shows declining upper atmosphere humidity. Both satellite data and radiosonde data confirms no tropical upper atmosphere temperature amplification, contrary to IPCC theory. Four independent data sets prove the IPCC theory wrong. CO2 does not cause significant global warming.
The Melting North? No Increase in the Greenhouse Effect February 1, 2013The Economist magazine article "The Melting North" claimed that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are causing Arctic warming. We show that the greenhouse effect has not increased in the Arctic since 1979, so CO2 emissions cannot be the cause of the warming.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Don't Cause More Severe Storms November 8, 2012Super-storm Sandy resulted from a collision of a tropical storm with a cold front from the north. The sea surface temperature in the region of Sandy's path shows no warming trend from 1935 so the hurricane was not made more intense by warming. There was an insignificant increase in the greenhouse effect since 1979. Numerous studies show that storms are more severe in cold climates, and there is no empirical link between warming and hurricanes.
Climategate and the Inquiries September 18, 2012A large archive of emails and files from the Climate Research Unit in the UK was released on the internet in November 2009. The emails show a group of scientists manipulated, hid or misrepresented data and evidence in official reports. Five inquiries were commissioned to investigate. The inquiries failed to interview critics, cross-examine evidence, and investigate the key issues. This article summarizes the key issues and the inquiries.
Climate Models vs Observations November 26, 2011Bob Tisdale has written several excellent posts which compare temperature series to hindcasts of computer models used by the IPCC. I have selected six graphs from his posts to present in this short article. These graphs are also presented in the "Climate Models Fail" section of my Climate Change Science essay. Readers are encouraged to read the source posts for further information. Computer model hindcasts should be compared to the actual historical observations to determine how well the models matched the historical record. A model that fails to history match will not produce realistic projections.
Hotter in Hansen's World due to Missing "Oceans" of Data September 1, 2012Jim Hansen of NASA's GISS replaces satellite-based sea surface temperature data with land measured data over the Arctic and Southern Oceans where there is seasonal sea ice. The land temperatures are extrapolated over the oceans up to 1200 km from the surface weather stations in the influential GISS temperature index. The GISS ocean-only warming trend in the Arctic is 35 times greater than the satellite measured ocean warming trend.
The Shakun Debacle - Temperature or CO2 Leads? April 15, 2012A recent paper by Shakun et al purports to show that CO2 increases preceded temperature rise during the last deglaciation, directly contradicting numerous previous studies. A detailed examination of the data used in the paper shows that the conclusion is not supported by the data. The paper alleges that the end of the last ice age was caused by orbital changes that initiated solar warming of the north region which reduced the Atlantic Ocean circulation and warmed the southern hemisphere. Without providing any evidence, that paper assumes that CO2 out-gassing from the southern oceans caused further northern hemisphere warming.
FakeGate: Stolen and Faked Heartland Documents February 25, 2012Prominent climate alarmist Peter Gleick admitted on February 20 that he stole private documents from the Heartland Institute by impersonating a board member using a fake email address. Gleick sent the Heartland documents and a forged fake document to journalists. The fake document contained statements damaging to the reputation of the Heartland Institute and other climate scientists.
Summary of the FoS Response to Canada's CO2 Reduction Plan October 18, 2011Here is a one-page summary of the Friends of Science response to Environment Canada's CO2 reduction plan, with a link to the submission.
FoS Response to Environment Canada's CO2 Emissions Reduction Plan September 30, 2011Friends of Science responds to Environment Canada's plan to restrict carbon dioxide from coal-fired electric generation plants at a cost to Canadians of $8.2 billion. FoS presents strong evidence that the climate sensitivity of CO2 emissions is one-sixth of the IPCC estimate. We show that a small warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions, about 0.5 C in 200 years, causes a social benefit, rather than a social cost. CO2 emissions also increase crop yields.
Out-going Longwave Radiation and the Greenhouse Effect September, 2011Using radiosonde data from 1960 to date and a line-by-line radiation code, the normalized greenhouse factor was calculated to have increased by 0.19% over 49 years, which is not significant. Climate sensitivity at doubled CO2 concentration is estimated to be 0.4 °C. This is about 13% of the 3.0 °C estimate by the International Panel on Climate Change.
Clouds Have Made Fools of Climate Modelers June, 2009A detailed analysis of cloud behavior from satellite data by Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville shows that clouds provide a strong negative feedback, the opposite of that assumed by the climate modelers. The modelers confused cause and effect, thereby getting the feedback in the wrong direction.
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